I think Halo 2/3 numbers, like nearly exact numbers would be pretty hard to sustain. You do have to also think about how the market looked back in 2007 and 2004. The FPS market was a lot less cluttered back then. CoD wasn't as big as it was, Battlefield is the same. Halo 2 was the FPS online console game to go to, because it was ONE of the only Console FPS's like it. I really can't think of what to compare it to back then. Although the innovation and overall greatness of the games were the main driving point of replay-ability and longevity, the way things were back then also helped as well.
But I did watch the video, and Most of your points are spot on. I do hope for the best this October, even with all the negativity floating around. I liked the video. It was a short talk, but you got Straight to the point and were thorough. You get a thumbs up from me.