Delpen9
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Everything posted by Delpen9
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Would you rather fight 100 duck sized horses or 1 horse sized duck?
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Why does Gabriel's Horn, a topological shape, have an infinite surface area and finite volume?
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If this YXL is anything like an XYZ-Dragon Cannon, I want it dead... NOW!
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- MGS
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Pandas are my allies. I choose truth.
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Bread doesn't move.
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http://i.imgur.com/vcfGcQj.png <spoiler> </spoiler> Gotcha dare done.
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Is someone putting me on the suspect list???
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This means alot to me.
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How dare you.
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Do you have a receding hairline?
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Can there be more than 1 mafian on the suspect list?
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My life advice worked! I told everyone to lynch the inactive players! Queue #2, I'm ready.
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What did EK do?
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Why have a null option when you don't have to vote at all? Pride? "I voted null and I'M PROUD!"- Null Voters of the World (NVW)
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I confused myself for a moment. After thinking about it, I realized that the real probability is 3/4th of 77%. 38*2/3 + 38 * 2/3 * 3/4 = 48%. Also, this was based under the premise that mafians that were revealed will die immediately after being revealed (Mafians with 2 lives). It's a significant factor. Something like ~40-45% chance of winning. Don't make me do the math on null. It's better to kill mafians earlier so that the other mafians later will be more apparent. I think voting null is also a viable strategy, considering how it'll save 3 lives over 3 turns, then killing a mafian on the 4th turn. You'll have 3 null turns to spare, or one lynch pro-town turn, meaning that switching between null and voting can be good.
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If we lynch no mafians and there are 3 protownians left, mafia has a 1/2 chance of winning because of ghost; Go down the scale for 2 mafians and 1. That effectively means we have a 5 turn cushion. Chance of lynching mafian (as of now): 25%. Math: 3/4 = lynching pro-town (turns decreased by one) 1/4 = lynching mafian (turns increased by one-half) 3/4 (turns reduced by 1) * 3/4 (turns reduced by one) * 3/4 (turns reduced by one)= 27/64 42% chance of mafia getting us to 3 players without any of them dying (slight chance of neutral role deaths prevent this from being a win - same for 2 below). From then on, they would have a more than a 50% chance of winning, so they have a 25%-30% chance of winning this way. (because neutral roles evening the playing field) 3/4 * 3/4 * 3/4 * 1/4 = 27/256 * 4 (This can happen in 4 ways) = 108/256 42% chance of mafia getting us to 2 players with 2 of them alive. A mafian death will stall for half a turn, which is made up by the extra 4th murder they get from the possibility. The real value in this comes by giving pro-town a better idea of who's mafian, meaning that the earlier the mafian was killed, the better it is for us (Proof by suspect list recursion). 3/4 * 3/4 * 3/4 * 1/4 * 1/4 * 6 = 162/1024 (This can happen in 10 ways) 16% chance of mafia getting us to 1 player with 1 of them alive. Two mafian deaths will stall for a whole turn. 50% chance of winning at this point because of neutral roles. 1/4* 1/4 * 1/4 = 1/64 chance of killing all mafians with 3 deaths. 3/64 with 5 deaths. 4.5/64 with 7 deaths. 7.5/64 with miraculous victory. (Assuming neutral) Chance of pro-town winning: 77%. GUESS WHAT! It's alot less than that. Mafians have 5 lives, remember? NOT 3. lulululul You'll know who the mafians are after you lynch them the first time, but those 3/4ths will get yah! Vote null. Seriously. I'll give you guys the real probability later.
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Imagine throughout the game of mafia, the suspect list fluctuates from 25 to 50% mafian. Right now, we can assume it's 25%. The loss of a protownian will bring us down 1 turn at the end of the game. This can be a game breaker, I agree, and for each round that a pro-townian is lynched, pro-town loses a round. However, the chance of killing a mafian must be higher than the chance of losing because of a lost turn; that's hard to figure out, especially in games with weird roles. -If anyone can answer this, I'll do what they say.
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Better than voting null.
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Usually it's best to have pro-town vote for someone, look at the vote opposition, and see if it's strong - if it is, keep those votes on that individual and lynch them. When there is no opposition, change those votes to someone else as late as possibly safe. This brings up an issue of voter liquidity; if the pro-town isn't active, this vote change is stalled, meaning that it's better to have scattered votes so that they can be tipped in another direction more easily, but mafian votes will be inconspicuous, ergo, an advantage. It's to the mafians advantage to kill active players, obviously, and to keep the inactive players alive. The game is decided by the pro-town activity, and from my experience as a mafian, there are inactive mafians and active mafians. When it comes time to lynch a player, lynch the inactive players if push comes to shove. Not only are they making the game less fun (Sorry people with good excuses), but they can cause pro-town to lose. I'm here to make this game even. Take my gypsy services seriously.
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There are 3 doors. Behind 1 door, there's a car, but behind two other doors, there's a goat. You choose a door and the show host reveals another door to you, revealing a goat. The host then asks you if you wish to switch doors. Should you, and why?
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You're third on my queue. Two other people reserved a spot before you. On a side-note, fellow neutral town, PM me.
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Read my long post. I'm only goofing around.
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The answer is no.
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Caboose might become my ally.
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I'll become a mafian if you keep this up.
