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Mafia 3.0 [Forum Game]

Sikslik7

By Sikslik7
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Sikslik7
Sikslik7

Shrieks of terror erupted across the city. The citizens dropped what they were doing to investigate the screams. They came into a garden to find 343ibot pointing at a picnic table, where food was stre

Sikslik7
Sikslik7

Announced? Someone commented that there were potential AFK players. I said that I had taken that into account, and the ones "I thought" to be possibly AFK possibly could be potentially in different gr

Sιlεƞτ Aʟρнα
Sιlεƞτ Aʟρнα

Bnus made some good points... I vote P34nut

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Delpen9 343 Guilty Spark

Delpen9

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Bnus kills people that he sees as a personal threat, which is not determined by their role, but how they play. Then, he targets you based on the importance of your role. Though he puts emphasis on those to categories, they aren't necessarily the first to go. Why? In chronological order the personal threats die first, and minor roles proceed to die. Finally, the major roles are taken out. The latter deaths often occur in tandem with the personal threats category, which can be expected for several reasons. 

 

List: Threat--Civilian--charity--Major roles who aren't a threat.Charity are those he wants to allow a fair cushion of time to play, since they are new to the game. (and a bit of randomization) 

 

It is hard to determine if the inconsistencies in the chronology of this list are due to the lack of viable evidence to convince others, or his own uncertainty. His uncertainty is counteracted by his dead-set playing style. He doesn't change his stance on a decision and professedly his known outlook on a situation. This allows his uncertainty to decay, which allows his decisions to be based on convincing appeal, such as in Unease's case. 

 

In short, he targets people based on the evidence necessary to convince others, and how they will effect him. 

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Delpen9 343 Guilty Spark

Delpen9

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Good job Delpen you seem to have a done a very well psychoanalytic of me. (I'm being serious good job I didn't even notice that about myself).

Sadly, that is all I can do for now. Hopefully, someday I can have a proper psychometric analysis of you. Your psychosis perturbs me. 

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Delpen9 343 Guilty Spark

Delpen9

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Bnus, there is a fault in your planning. You tend to believe what people first tell you, probably processing things through a filter to establish relevance and falsifications. That can be your undoing with new members that attempt to distort your perspective from the get-go. It isn't an easy task, but you can be deceived; unless you learn from this. 

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Buns 343 Guilty Spark

Buns

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If Peanut is Mafia, then we should let Bnus go. But if he isn't, then we keep a close eye on Bnus and do not trust him.

I don't want you guys to trust me because I don't trust you guys.

 

I am a lone wolf. I am PUBLICALLY(that means in the forum thread) aiding both sides. I guess you can say I'm neutral. I find it boring to go "Pro Town! Pro Town! Pro Town" but I find it boring to go "Mafia! Mafia! Mafia!"

 

I have no active PM convos with anyone. I am merely a bread who offers insight. I give Pro-Town clues to how the mafia thinks and I give Mafia a chance to change their strategy(since I told you guys how they think)

 

I thought it would be obvious by now but I don't really have an allegiance. I just want justice and death to the mafia. I also want the mafia to adapt new strategy and fool Pro Town. I want the game to last long and be fun for everyone(since I kind of killed it last game I must redeem myself). That is my goal so nobodys trust is needed for me to achieve my goal. 

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Delpen9 343 Guilty Spark

Delpen9

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Axilus, you ALWAYS make sense, and give a thorough bounty of evidence and hypothesis with every post, which makes you an understandable target. You make yourself too sane, which can be an asset when not killed, but less so in generality. Your reasoning like I said is thorough, even so to the point that you consider possibilities that I never noticed. In this game, that trait doesn't help me so much as it does enlighten me. All evidence is psychological. If we aren't proficient in psychoanalysis, we can't even rely on probability. If random people are killed, then chances are (67%) that pro-town would win in a 'hanging' battle; but we all know there is more to this conundrum. 67% couldn't be farther than the truth when the night scenes are included. 

 

Assuming that all five night scenes consecutively kill a pro-town member, the pro-town is at a technical disadvantage. The game has 1/32% chance of ending in 5 rounds through lynching, by killing off all the mafia in this instance. There are 10 pro-town members and 5 mafia. After 5 rounds, 5 pro-town will be dead and likely 2-3 mafia will be dead. We are left with 2-3 pro-town that will be at a disadvantage, because along with 50% chance of lynching they must endure the night scenes. This gives the pro-town a 25% chance of winning in that predicament, which makes up 31/32% of the scenarios.

 

Overall, that would give pro-town an 8.75/32% chance of winning (so roughly 27%). Don't like those odds? Tough luck. It gets worse. 

 

The mafia know who each other are-- We can't forget the simple facts! That boost is incalculable, but I feel that this advantage totally outstrips the advantage given by the detective, mayor, and medic. 

So how does the pro-town win? You safely stow away the detective into the vaults of secrecy. The catacombs, or the annals of what is and forever shall be. When the detective dies, all that is left is intelligence. Probability has betrayed the pro-town, and so could strategy if we don't embrace it. Lone wolf tactics are impossible (27%), but there is one procedure that could sway the odds. 

This is a strategy that can't be beaten even if the mafia know it. I'm serious. 


Anyone care to see it?

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Buns 343 Guilty Spark

Buns

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'Previous Game'

 

LOL

Not to mention this is Slik we're talking about

 

He loves Windows Vista he can do anything.

...that's where you come in Bnus.   ;)

Hint: I'm calling the tactic "Island Hopping".

How can I hop over and help?

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Delpen9 343 Guilty Spark

Delpen9

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The plan is axiomatic in nature, and requires one thing to be effective. If it doesn't receive this one condition the plan may dissolve or never form in the first place. 


...but as the game is now, there is absolutely no way that pro-town can win. NO WAY! This is the best suggestion I can give.  

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Buns 343 Guilty Spark

Buns

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The plan is axiomatic in nature, and requires one thing to be effective. If it doesn't receive this one condition the plan may dissolve or never form in the first place. 

...but as the game is now, there is absolutely no way that pro-town can win. NO WAY! This is the best suggestion I can give.  

I wouldn't be so neagtive, It is just nobody in Pro-Town trusts each other.

 

I honestly think if Pro-Town is going to win they need to take the risk of group PMs. It might not be the best option but you need a way to coordinate like the mafia. Thats how the mafia win they work as a "team"

 

and honestly it isn't hard to figure out who can be Pro-Town or mafia. Just ask for proof. Nobody here(but me) can properly fake evidence as good as I did.

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Axilus Prime 343 Guilty Spark

Axilus Prime

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Actually, I have a PM with almost all the players. My intention was to coordinate the team, but not in a group, in order to solve both problems. If one person gives me good input that is not sensitive information, I share it or carry it out. If a person does give me sensitive information, I only share it with those I know I can trust fully, unless absolutely necessary.

 

So far I have not needed to share sensitive information. But that may change, depending on how Night 2 plays out.

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Axilus Prime 343 Guilty Spark

Axilus Prime

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Hmm. I now have reason to believe Yoshi is Mafia. Far more reason than my previous accusations, in fact.

 

When I sent out the call for all pro-town to PM me, I knew that Mafia would be among those who answered. Yoshi PM'd me. When I asked him what his role was, he claimed to be the Mayor. I requested a screenshot of the inside of the PM telling him that he was the mayor. He read that PM about an hour after I sent it.

 

That happened over 24 hours ago. In addition, I found that the particular message claiming he was Mayor had been edited. All text was replaced with the word "hello".

 

I have received neither screenshot nor further message from him and the edit is beyond suspicious. Unless he can provide a substantial defense I believe he must die.

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Buns 343 Guilty Spark

Buns

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I have received neither screenshot nor further message from him and the edit is beyond suspicious. Unless he can provide a substantial defense I believe he must die.

I told Yoshi not to trust anyone. He sent me a PM asking if we could share information awhile back and I sent him a message saying trust nobody. 

 

:troll:  :troll:  :troll:  :troll:  :troll:  :troll:  :troll:  :troll:  :troll:

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