Mafia 14 {GAME OVER}

[Caboose The Ace]

^
^

 

Detailed, apply basic logic.

 

It narrows down the list, that is enough reason.

[Ash]

Narrow down the odds.. Starting at a 1/4 chance that we would vote out a Mafian.

 

Voting null has a 3/4 chance of not killing a pro town. I'll take those odds, and if you won't, then you are considered Mafian.

 

Unless you would like to PM me proof otherwise, which you have shown no inclination to do so as of yet.

[Fishy]

Guys, you realize what they are saying right?

 

There are 3 mafia. They'll show up on the list sooner or later again. As for other players, but they say if we lynch one now. That'll increase the chances of the next time we see them on a list. Or while the detective investigates who is what while we lynch. That'll not only save a life from that list, but it will leave expose who the last two people are.

 

There's 8 protown, but Ash has 2 lives. Giving you the power of being able to be executed, assuming the medic doesn't save anyone, it'll take the mafians 10 attempts to execute protown, assuming they don't hit the Neutral or Grim reaper.

 

So take your pick on what you guys want to do. We can either draw this game out, or we can try our best and finish it.

 

There's only 3 mafians guys, 5 lives in total. Once one of them has been investigated. They lose a vantage point. 66% of mafia have special roles. 30% of protown has special roles.

 

Lets at least try this to our advantage. Nobody can win. The grim reaper is invulnerable. We have all lost either way.

[Delpen9]

Well, If every pro town role would PM me, that would narrow down the list.

 

But it seems Pro town isn't very good at reading. Voting this early with no idea who is who is how the mafians win.

 

You'd think someone ​who is "all for pro town" would be in favour of not voting.

 

Imagine throughout the game of mafia, the suspect list  fluctuates from 25 to 50% mafian. Right now, we can assume it's 25%. 

 

The loss of a protownian will bring us down 1 turn at the end of the game. This can be a game breaker, I agree, and for each round that a pro-townian is lynched, pro-town loses a round. 

 

However, the chance of killing a mafian must be higher than the chance of losing because of a lost turn; that's hard to figure out, especially in games with weird roles.  

 

-If anyone can answer this, I'll do what they say. 

[Caboose The Ace]

Exactly, killing people makes logical sense, how else are we supposed to discover identities?

 

Apart from the Detectives?

 

We cant.

 

That is why we must lynch this round!

[I_Make_Big_Boom]

Imagine throughout the game of mafia, the suspect list  fluctuates from 25 to 50% mafian. Right now, we can assume it's 25%. 

 

The loss of a protownian will bring us down 1 turn at the end of the game. This can be a game breaker, I agree, and for each round that a pro-townian is lynched, pro-town loses a round. 

 

However, the chance of killing a mafian must be higher than the chance of losing because of a lost turn; that's hard to figure out, especially in games with weird roles.  

 

-If anyone can answer this, I'll do what they say. 

 

If 1-2 Mafians show up per Lynch you can figure out who could potentially be a Mafian via Scene Deduction.

Exactly, killing people makes logical sense, how else are we supposed to discover identities?

 

Apart from the Detectives?

 

We cant.

 

That is why we must lynch this round!

 

1: Scene Deduction

 

1-2 Mafians show up per Lynch (unless it's different this game). So that would mean if 2 people on that list were confirmed via other means, and are NOT Mafia the other two people are immediately candidates for being Mafia. If 3 out of the 4 players are confirmed beforehand, and are NOT Mafia then the last player is a Mafian.

 

Imagine it as pieces of a puzzle that's slowly coming together.

 

2: Psychic

 

They can investigate a player like the Detective every 2 Rounds. The problem is that they're a Neutral, and it might be a problem to get them to join the Protown cause. You also cannot trust them at all due to their Neutral status (you shouldn't trust anyone unless they're confirmed).

 

3: Slipup

 

Certain events lead a player to be revealed as Mafia via a slipup by the Host, or something the Mafian does that's telling of their role. Like a Mafian revealing themselves (like EK did in a previous game), or them frantically doing "damage control" in the thread to change the outcome of a big event to follow. You usually did your own grave by trying to get everyone to vote for someone else besides you in a Lynch.

 

4: Cracking

 

This one takes some analyzing to do. This involves proving if certain member's evidence is true, and if they'e actually legit, or wrong from what they claim. You have to put on your Detective glasses for this, and it's not something that happens often. 

 

EK gave me a sketchy screenshot in a previous game, and I figured out that it was a fake. This led him to reveal his role to me like I said up there ^.

 

 

The results are slower than a Lynch, but they do come eventually. You just have to be patient.

[rrhuntington]

I vote null because I've never voted Null before. Who's Null btw?

[Delpen9]

If we lynch no mafians and there are 3 protownians left, mafia has a 1/2 chance of winning because of ghost; Go down the scale for 2 mafians and 1. That effectively means we have a 5 turn cushion. 

 

Chance of lynching mafian (as of now): 25%.

 

Math: 

 

3/4 = lynching pro-town (turns decreased by one)

1/4 = lynching mafian (turns increased by one-half)

 

 

3/4 (turns reduced by 1) * 3/4 (turns reduced by one) * 3/4 (turns reduced by one)= 27/64

42% chance of mafia getting us to 3 players without any of them dying (slight chance of neutral role deaths prevent this from being a win - same for 2 below). From then on, they would have a more than a 50% chance of winning, so they have a 25%-30% chance of winning this way. (because neutral roles evening the playing field)

 

3/4 * 3/4 * 3/4 * 1/4 = 27/256 * 4 (This can happen in 4 ways) = 108/256 

42% chance of mafia getting us to 2 players with 2 of them alive. A mafian death will stall for half a turn, which is made up by the extra 4th murder they get from the possibility. The real value in this comes by giving pro-town a better idea of who's mafian, meaning that the earlier the mafian was killed, the better it is for us (Proof by suspect list recursion). 

 

3/4 * 3/4 * 3/4 * 1/4 * 1/4 * 6 = 162/1024 (This can happen in 10 ways)

16% chance of mafia getting us to 1 player with 1 of them alive. Two mafian deaths will stall for a whole turn. 50% chance of winning at this point because of neutral roles. 

 

1/4* 1/4 * 1/4 = 1/64 chance of killing all mafians with 3 deaths. 

 

3/64 with 5 deaths. 

 

4.5/64 with 7 deaths. 

 

7.5/64 with miraculous victory. (Assuming neutral) 

 

Chance of pro-town winning: 77%. 

 

GUESS WHAT! It's alot less than that. Mafians have 5 lives, remember? NOT 3. lulululul 

You'll know who the mafians are after you lynch them the first time, but those 3/4ths will get yah! 

 

Vote null. Seriously. I'll give you guys the real probability later. 

Edited July 31, 2015 by Dumpen9

[BATMAN]

Tempted to vote Delpen ('cause let's face it, I always do), but since we're against taking stabs in the dark this time around, I'll hold off on voting for now.

 

I mean, I love watching the banter and bickering, but if we're playing the blame game this early on with The Hulk already exposed, I'll take my chances with being cautious.

[Delpen9]

I confused myself for a moment. After thinking about it, I realized that the real probability is 3/4th of 77%. 

38*2/3 + 38 * 2/3 * 3/4 = 48%. 

 

Also, this was based under the premise that mafians that were revealed will die immediately after being revealed (Mafians with 2 lives). It's a significant factor. Something like ~40-45% chance of winning. 

 

 

Don't make me do the math on null. 

It's better to kill mafians earlier so that the other mafians later will be more apparent. 

 

I think voting null is also a viable strategy, considering how it'll save 3 lives over 3 turns, then killing a mafian on the 4th turn. You'll have 3 null turns to spare, or one lynch pro-town turn, meaning that switching between null and voting can be good. 

 

 

Edited July 31, 2015 by Dumpen9

[Axilus Prime]

I'm not even in this game but I think some people are forgetting that Protown's had to take a few blind shots to clear things up every time they've ever won a game.

[Caboose The Ace]

^

 

Exactly.

 

But alas, Pro town is falling for mafian manipulation.

[I_Make_Big_Boom]

Oh ok so everything we're doing right now is Mafian manipulation. Sure, deceive yourself into believing that.

 

I think the only one here who's being irrational is you, Caboose.

 

You want results & to narrow the list? Vote me out. All of you. I can't believe I've had to resort to this for more than 1 game.

[Church]

Not afk btw. I'm not really on the side of either argument, but I do agree on one thing: it's too early in the game to mobvote.

[Caboose The Ace]

^

 

Then you are a neutral I presume.

[Mr Kittens and Gibberish]

VOTING HAS ENDED

 

VOTES HAVE BEEN TALLIED

 

Results:

 

TIED

 

Haley Kenway - I

 

Self Destruct (Selfie :3) - I

 

Church - 0

 

Dumpen9 - 0

 

Null - IIII

----------------------------------------------

 

Suspect List:

 

Haley Keway

 

Self Destruct (Selfie :3)

 

Double Lynching

 

----------------------------------------------

 

An extra 48 Hours has occured.

[MCPO Mayh3m]

So we vote again, yeah?

 

Not sure if I actually want to vote. :/

[I_Make_Big_Boom]

Wait what? Null has more votes than either me, or EK... does that mean it's not an option? Why didn't you tell us this beforehand?

[Mr Kittens and Gibberish]

Wait what? Null has more votes than either me, or EK... does that mean it's not an option? Why didn't you tell us this beforehand?

 

Null means you don't vote. Null is the equivalent of 0.

[I_Make_Big_Boom]

But we DID vote. You're telling me 4 votes = 0?

 

In the past null usually means we're voting for the option for no one to die (Null), unless I'm remembering incorrectly. It's alright if it was changed, but telling us NOW of all times seems a little weird to me.

 

Whatevs. I guess I'll volunteer to die to become the friggin Mediator again (this is like the 5th time I've done this). 

 

Vote for Self Destruct.

[Mr Kittens and Gibberish]

But we DID vote. You're telling me 4 votes = 0?

 

In the past null usually means we're voting for the option for no one to die (Null), unless I'm remembering incorrectly. It's alright if it was changed, but telling us NOW of all times seems a little weird to me.

 

Whatevs. I guess I'll volunteer to die to become the friggin Mediator again (this is like the 5th time I've done this). 

 

Vote for Self Destruct.

 

I completely forgot about Null Voting until Tony Stark voted Null. And I'm pretty sure that Null meant you vote nobody...your undecided.

[Drizzy_Dan]

Why didn't null win??

[Caboose The Ace]

^

^

 

NO IT DOSENT!

 

Null means you vote for nobody to die that round, and that is what happened this round!

 

NOBODY DIED! You told us too late and the game is already started, lets just carry on to night one!

[MCPO Mayh3m]

^

^

 

NO IT DOSENT!

 

Null means you vote for nobody to die that round, and that is what happened this round!

 

NOBODY DIED! You told us too late and the game is already started, lets just carry on to night one!

 

He made the rules, we had a chance to modify them beforehand, and we didn't. It is something we will need to pay attention to next round. In past games, death won over a tie. This doesn't seem to be any different.

 

I am fine with voting someone, and as SD requested, I will vote for him.

[Caboose The Ace]

^

 

But he didn't tell us, did he?

 

Regardless null is a valid option and should be in the game. I would presume pretty much everyone wants it in anyway.....

 

No reason to keep it out.